Who is really running Ukraine’s refinery strikes: Why the CIA and MI6, not the White House, will likely decide what you pay at the pump this winter.
Diesel in the United States is averaging $6.27 a gallon this morning, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). A year ago it was $3.69. Regular gasoline sits at $4.12, after $4.149 on Tuesday, which AAA says was the highest national average ever recorded on a congressional Election Day. The Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz explain most of that. But a second fuel war runs in parallel, far from the Gulf, and who controls it matters to every household heading into winter.
Overnight into Tuesday, 3 November, Ukrainian drones set fire to the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl, one of Russia’s five largest. That came within a day of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky telling Fox News he would pause attacks on Russian refineries in exchange for Patriot missiles. In the same interview Zelensky confirmed that President Donald Trump had asked him not to hit refineries. So who gave the order?
Jump To Section:
- Our assessment: Langley and London, not the White House
- The wider picture: a pause, not peace
- How solid is this? Sorting fact from inference
- Why a refinery in Yaroslavl reaches your fuel tank
- Three scenarios through winter
- Status now
- What it means for you
- What you should do now
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Treat this as the big picture. Members get the buying windows, daily tracking and forecasts that turn it into decisions for your household.
Our Assessment: Langley and London, not the White House
Our take is that the long-range energy campaign is not a purely Ukrainian decision.
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has been embedded in Ukraine for years. The New York Times has reported on the scale of that presence and on the agency’s role in rebuilding Ukraine’s military intelligence services after the 2014 overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych. Strikes hundreds of kilometers inside Russia depend on the targeting data, satellite intelligence and planning those services supply.
The timeline points the same way. Washington tolerated, and by most accounts supported, the refinery campaign while it hurt Moscow. Then the Iran war drove energy prices up, the midterms closed in, and Trump publicly turned against the strikes. They did not stop. Zelensky signaled a pause before the midterms, and within roughly a day another Russian energy site was hit.
Either Kyiv changed its mind, or the decision does not rest with Kyiv and the White House alone.
We assess that the CIA and Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) are working at cross purposes with Trump’s stated aim of a quick peace deal.
One caveat: There is no single, coherent White House policy on Ukraine. Trump talks peace, while parts of his own administration and Congress push the other way, as the watering down of earlier US peace proposals showed.
The irony is colossal: American buyers have kept taking Russian diesel, while American intelligence helps Ukraine burn the refineries that produce it.
The Wider Picture: a Pause, Not Peace
From where we’re standing it looks as though the Western security services and their European partners want a ceasefire to buy time and rebuild Ukraine’s position, not a settlement that ends the project. That would explain why Kyiv offers ceasefire terms while escalating strikes.
The language has also become lopsided. European governments accuse Russia of “hybrid war.” Yet Western-enabled drone strikes on Russian infrastructure and energy refineries amount to something closer to an open war.
That gap carries its own risk: Escalation can follow whether or not European and NATO leaders intend it.
Taken together, the picture is consistent: The refinery campaign depends on Western targeting, intelligence and planning, and those supplying it have their own reasons to keep it going, whatever the President says on television.
How Solid is This? Sorting Fact from Inference
Established by open-source intelligence (OSINT):
- Ukraine struck the YANOS refinery overnight on 3 November. The Yaroslavl governor reported damaged infrastructure and two injured workers (Kyiv Post; Reuters via Investing.com). The Kyiv Post says this followed a nearly two-week lull in reported refinery strikes.
- Zelensky publicly offered, on Fox News, to pause refinery strikes for a month in exchange for Patriots, and confirmed Trump had raised the issue with him.
- The CIA’s long-running role in Ukraine has been reported by the New York Times and other mainstream outlets. Its exact current role in targeting is not public.
Educated guesses (our assessment):
- The CIA helped design and still steers the long-range energy campaign, and that Western services want a pause to regroup rather than a settlement. The pattern supports this; no documentary proof is public.
- Tuesday’s strike was a deliberate signal from inside the Western intelligence apparatus to the White House, timed to Election Day and to the US, Russia and Ukraine talks the Kremlin says will open in Abu Dhabi on 10 and 11 November. The timing invites the theory; nothing public proves it.
The official counterpoint, tested: Kyiv frames the strikes as its own sovereign retaliation for Russia’s assault on Ukraine’s power grid. On Tuesday alone, Zelensky said, Russia launched 289 drones and 76 missiles.
Ukraine has real motives for retaliation, but this account struggles to explain why the Zelensky regime would defy its main sponsor’s stated wishes a week before negotiations that sponsor is brokering, unless someone with more leverage than Washington’s public line is backing the retaliation campaign.
Why a Refinery in Yaroslavl Reaches Your Fuel Tank
Crude oil is not the main channel. Brent crude actually fell about 1% on Tuesday, to $103.60 a barrel, its lowest close since 7 October, as traders bet on peace talks (Reuters via Yahoo Finance). The real channel is refined products, above all diesel.
Russia has long been one of the world’s biggest exporters of diesel and other middle distillates. Each refinery taken offline means less Russian diesel on world markets, tightening a market the Gulf has already squeezed. US diesel set an all-time record of $6.53 on 22 September, per AAA. It has eased only slightly since.
The knock-on effects stack up:
- First order: Higher diesel and heating oil at the pump and in home tanks. Hardest hit: the US Northeast and much of rural Europe, which heat with oil.
- Second order: Diesel moves the trucks, trains, tractors and ships that carry food and goods. Expensive diesel feeds straight into grocery and delivery prices weeks later.
- Third order: Europe enters winter exposed. Germany’s gas storage stood at 61% on 2 November, a record low and well below the EU average of about 75% (Flux, citing Gas Infrastructure Europe). Any cold snap pushes more demand onto oil products at the worst possible moment.
The winter switch to cheaper fuel blends and lower seasonal demand are pulling gasoline down for now, AAA says. Diesel is the weak point, and it is exactly what a refinery war hits.
Three scenarios through winter
- Talks hold, strikes pause. If Abu Dhabi produces even a temporary halt to energy attacks on both sides, diesel could ease. (Most hopeful, and least supported by this week’s behaviour.)
- Talks stall, the campaign continues. If the strike decisions sit partly outside the White House, a Trump-brokered deal cannot easily switch them off. Expect periodic refinery hits, Russian retaliation against Ukraine’s grid and Black Sea shipping, and diesel staying high. (Our base case.)
- Escalation. The gap between “hybrid war” rhetoric and real strikes on Russian soil could close fast. Wider strikes on export terminals or shipping would hit crude and products together, on top of Hormuz. (Lower probability, highest cost.)
Status Now
Ukraine resumed refinery strikes on 3 November despite Trump’s request and Zelensky’s own offer of a pause. Three-way talks are set for 10 and 11 November in Abu Dhabi, according to the Kremlin. US diesel is about $6.27 and gasoline about $4.12 (AAA, 4 November). Brent is near a four-week low, but distillate markets remain tight.
What it Means for You
If our assessment is right, the person you voted for, or against, may not be the one deciding whether the next Russian refinery burns. And that decision will show up in your heating bill, your grocery receipt and the cost of anything that travels by truck.
What You Should Do Now
Treat this winter’s fuel costs as unsettled rather than settled. Map where diesel, heating oil and transport costs touch your budget, and don’t assume peace-talk headlines mean relief at the pump.
This Rapid Signal is educational analysis for readers of BackToFreedom.co, based on published reporting and official data. It is not professional financial, legal or investment advice.
There’s A Lot More To This
This article stops at the big picture. Our members get the parts that turn it into decisions:
- Seer weekday briefings: The heating-oil and diesel buying window as it opens or closes, what to stock and by when, and daily What Moved tracking of refinery strikes, the Abu Dhabi talks, pump prices, and any other developments which impact your life. They also open the interactive Arsenal planners, which turn those calls into a plan for your own household.
- Sage weekly reports: Forward calls with probabilities on whether these talks hold, wider impactful economic and strategic global developments, where oil, diesel and heating costs are likely to head over the coming weeks, and what you can do to protect your wealth, freedoms, and loved ones.
That is the gap between knowing the problem and acting on it. Join The Rekindled to get both.
Sources: AAA Fuel Prices (4 Nov 2026); AAA Oregon/Idaho weekly release (3 Nov 2026); Reuters; Kyiv Post; Flux Markets / Gas Infrastructure Europe; Fox News interview with Volodymyr Zelensky; New York Times reporting on the CIA in Ukraine.
